A POLITICAL forecaster has indicated that Labour winning the Colchester constituency at the next General Election is a near certainty.

Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting website which attempts to predict future United Kingdom General Election results, has suggested Labour has an 84 per cent chance of taking the seat from the Conservatives.

Incumbent MP Will Quince won the seat in 2015, but is standing down at the next election; former Olympic champion rower, James Cracknell, will stand as the Conservative candidate.

But the recent dip in polling ratings for the Conservatives suggests Mr Cracknell will have to perform a minor miracle to keep Colchester blue when a General Election is held before January 2025.

Of the 82,625 voters who turned out in Colchester in 2019, more than half voted for Mr Quince, who increased his share of the vote by nearly five percent.

However, Electoral Calculus has predicted that, at the next election, the Conservatives’ share of the vote will fall off a cliff, with 23 per cent of its vote share in Colchester dispersed amongst other parties.

Labour, who have not won the seat of Colchester since the 1945, could see its vote share rise from 32.8 per cent to 43.3 per cent.